Thermosetting polyester-based coatings are used to produce pre-painted metal in the coil coating industry. The coated steel sheet is formed into white goods and architectural cladding, which involves large deformations of the metal and results in large strains in the coating. The Erichsen cupping test is a standard method used to assess the formability, ductility and adhesion of coatings, which induces similar strains to those experienced during forming. It is a qualitative and robust quality control method, but the behaviour of coatings during the test has never been previously studied quantitatively. Failure of coatings on sheet metal during forming is a strain-governed process, so understanding the behaviour of a coating in the Erichsen cupping test will allow the formability, material properties and chemical structure of the polymer to be linked more closely, enabling the development of better coatings. A finite element model has been developed to calculate the coating surface strains for any level of indentation during the test, and has been validated using the surface strains during cupping measured by digital image correlation. A master curve of the maximum strain versus the indentation depth (Erichsen index) has been determined. This allows the strain to failure of the coating on a substrate, a critical material property which is otherwise difficult and laborious to obtain, to be simply determined from the Erichsen test for the first time. The relationship between the Erichsen index and maximum surface strain presented here enables users to obtain this material property both from future tests and from the results of historic tests (as many coating suppliers and users have extensive databases of Erichsen test results stretching back many years). This novel framework provides a quantitative method to analyse the performance of coatings used in the coil industry, redeveloping a century-old technique.