On the temporal decay of tropical cyclones over the ocean
Author(s)
Li, Min
Toumi, Ralf
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
It is important to understand how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay over the ocean as this is a critical
pre‐landfall stage. A modified exponential decay model (β model) with two parameters α and β is proposed. The
scale parameter α defines the decay scale, while the shape parameter β determines whether the decay rate
decelerates or accelerates over time. Global fittings indicate that around 40% of TCs exhibit decelerating decay
(β≤1), while the majority (about 60%) show accelerating decay (β>1). Correlation analysis reveals a strong
negative correlation between the scale parameter α and the initial Coriolis parameter (r = − 0.96) and a positive
correlation between the shape parameter β and the meridional component of the initial translation velocity
(r = 0.75). The β model provides a comprehensive understanding of how TCs decay with time and how
environmental conditions affect the decay scale and evolution.
pre‐landfall stage. A modified exponential decay model (β model) with two parameters α and β is proposed. The
scale parameter α defines the decay scale, while the shape parameter β determines whether the decay rate
decelerates or accelerates over time. Global fittings indicate that around 40% of TCs exhibit decelerating decay
(β≤1), while the majority (about 60%) show accelerating decay (β>1). Correlation analysis reveals a strong
negative correlation between the scale parameter α and the initial Coriolis parameter (r = − 0.96) and a positive
correlation between the shape parameter β and the meridional component of the initial translation velocity
(r = 0.75). The β model provides a comprehensive understanding of how TCs decay with time and how
environmental conditions affect the decay scale and evolution.
Date Issued
2024-12-16
Date Acceptance
2024-11-18
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, 51 (23)
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
Wiley
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
51
Issue
23
Copyright Statement
© 2024. The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
10.1029/2024GL111029
Subjects
ATLANTIC
Geology
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
NORTH PACIFIC
Physical Sciences
Science & Technology
STATE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e2024GL111029
Date Publish Online
2024-11-28