Changes to the air‐sea flux and distribution of radiocarbon in the ocean over the 21st century
File(s)Khatiwala_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf (1020.13 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Khatiwala, Samar
Graven, H
Payne, Sarah
Heimbach, Patrick
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of radiocarbon (Δ14C) in the ocean over the 21st century under different scenarios for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 and radiocarbon changes using a 3‐D ocean carbon cycle model. Strong decreases in atmospheric Δ14C in the high‐emission scenario result in strong outgassing of 14C over 2050–2100, causing Δ14C spatial gradients in the surface ocean and vertical gradients between the surface and intermediate waters to reverse sign. Surface Δ14C in the subtropical gyres is lower than Δ14C in Pacific Deep Water and Southern Ocean surface water in 2100. In the low‐emission scenario, ocean Δ14C remains slightly higher than in 1950 and relatively constant over 2050–2100. Over the next 20 years we find decadal changes in Δ14C of −30‰ to +5‰ in the upper 2 km of the ocean, which should be detectable with continued hydrographic surveys. Our simulations can help in planning future observations, and they provide a baseline for investigating natural or anthropogenic changes in ocean circulation using ocean Δ14C observations and models.
Date Issued
2018-06-16
Date Acceptance
2018-05-29
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45, pp.5617-5626
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Start Page
5617
End Page
5626
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
45
Copyright Statement
©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Khatiwala, S., Graven, H., Payne, S., & Heimbach, P. (2018). Changes to the air‐sea flux and distribution of radiocarbon in the ocean over the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 5617–5626. . To view the published open abstract, go to: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/showCitFormats?doi=10.1029%2F2018GL078172
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Grant Number
PCIG14-GA-2013-631578
Subjects
MD Multidisciplinary
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-05-29