Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths
File(s)123767_3_supp_941560_q128b2_convrt.pdf (103.99 KB) s41591-019-0721-y.pdf (3.76 MB)
Supporting information
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Temperatures which deviate from long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes.1 There is limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. Here, we used data on mortality and temperature over 38 years (1980-2017) in the contiguous USA and formulated a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to quantify how anomalous temperatures, defined as deviations of monthly temperature from the local average monthly temperature over the entire analysis period, affect deaths from unintentional (transport, falls and drownings) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries, by age group and sex. We found that a 1.5°C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement,2 would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,430-37 1,776) additional injury deaths. 84% of these additional deaths would occur in males, mostly in adolescent to middle ages. These deaths would comprise of increases in deaths 39 from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries during periods of anomalously high temperatures, especially as these episodes are likely to increase with global climate change.
Date Issued
2020-01-13
Date Acceptance
2019-11-26
Citation
Nature Medicine, 2020, 26, pp.65-70
ISSN
1078-8956
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
65
End Page
70
Journal / Book Title
Nature Medicine
Volume
26
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long
as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other
third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license,
unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in
the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly
from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.
org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long
as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other
third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license,
unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in
the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly
from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.
org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Sponsor
Wellcome Trust
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-019-0721-y
Grant Number
105603/Z/14/Z
Subjects
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Immunology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-01-13