Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Report
Abstract
Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019, there are now 29 affected countries with over 1000 confirmed cases outside of mainland China. In previous reports, we estimated the likely epidemic size in Wuhan City based on air traffic volumes and the number of detected cases internationally. Here we analysed COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different countries. Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.
Date Issued
2020-02-21
Citation
Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance, 2020, pp.1-6
Start Page
1
End Page
6
Journal / Book Title
Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
Copyright Statement
© 2020. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives
4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-02-21-COVID19-Report-6.pdf
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
MR/R024855/1
Subjects
COVID-19
Surveillance
Publication Status
Published online