Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate
disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for
neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses
which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease,
visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic
filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the
importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of
infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir
for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when
true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of
disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this
collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further
development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more
detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final
push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.
disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for
neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses
which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease,
visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic
filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the
importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of
infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir
for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when
true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of
disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this
collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further
development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more
detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final
push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.
Date Issued
2015-12-09
Date Acceptance
2015-12-01
Citation
Parasites & Vectors, 2015, 8
ISSN
1756-3305
Publisher
BioMed Central
Journal / Book Title
Parasites & Vectors
Volume
8
Copyright Statement
© 2015 Hollingsworth et al. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver
(http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver
(http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Parasitology
Modelling
Elimination
Neglected tropical diseases
Transmission
Chagas disease
Visceral leishmaniasis
Kala-azar
Human African trypanosomiasis
Leprosy
Soil-transmitted helminths
Schistosomiasis
Lymphatic filariasis
Onchocerciasis
Trachoma
Mass drug administration
Preventive chemotherapy
SCHISTOSOMA-HAEMATOBIUM INFECTION
ONCHOCERCA-VOLVULUS TRANSMISSION
WUCHERERIA-BANCROFTI INFECTION
CHAGAS-DISEASE
LYMPHATIC FILARIASIS
IVERMECTIN TREATMENT
THERAPEUTIC VACCINE
ECONOMIC-EVALUATION
AFRICA
ELIMINATION
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
630