The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa
File(s)
Author(s)
Gaythorpe, Katy AM
Hamlet, Arran
Cibrelus, Laurence
Garske, Tini
Ferguson, Neil M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Yellow Fever (YF) is an arbovirus endemic in tropical regions of South America and Africa and it is estimated to cause 78,000 deaths a year in Africa alone. Climate change may have substantial effects on the transmission of YF and we present the first analysis of the potential impact on disease burden. We extend an existing model of YF transmission to account for rainfall and a temperature suitability index and project transmission intensity across the African endemic region in the context of four climate change scenarios. We use these transmission projections to assess the change in burden in 2050 and 2070. We find disease burden changes heterogeneously across the region. In the least severe scenario, we find a 93.0%[95%CI(92.7, 93.2%)] chance that annual deaths will increase in 2050. This change in epidemiology will complicate future control efforts. Thus, we may need to consider the effect of changing climatic variables on future intervention strategies.
Date Issued
2020-07-28
Date Acceptance
2020-07-01
Citation
eLife, 2020, 9 (1)
ISSN
2050-084X
Publisher
eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Journal / Book Title
eLife
Volume
9
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© Gaythorpe et al.
This article is distributed under
the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use
and redistribution provided that
the original author and source are
credited.
This article is distributed under
the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use
and redistribution provided that
the original author and source are
credited.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000557386900001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
VIRUS
TEMPERATURE
INFECTIONS
DENGUE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e55619
Date Publish Online
2020-07-28