Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 ∘C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 ∘C limit only.
Date Issued
2021-10-19
Date Acceptance
2021-09-17
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (10)
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
16
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
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Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000709986000001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
climate change
climate impacts
climate mitigation
CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GROWTH
integrated assessment
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Physical Sciences
POLICY
SCENARIOS
Science & Technology
SOCIAL COST
TARGETS
TEMPERATURE
TIPPING POINTS
WEATHER
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 104053
Date Publish Online
2021-10-19