Quantifying the impacts of air transportation on economic productivity: a quasi-experimental causal analysis
File(s)1-s2.0-S2212012220301313-main.pdf (5.35 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Graham, Daniel
Carbo, Jose
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Air transport capacity expansions are often justified on the grounds that they will improve economic perfor-mance and induce growth. Such causal impacts are hard to identify empirically due to the fundamentally endogenous nature of the relationship between air transport and the economy. This paper contributes to the empirical literature on aviation-economy effects by conducting a case study of the impacts of air transportation activity on productivity in Chinese provinces. For exogenous variation we exploit a policy scenario created by the 2003 deregulation of the Chinese aviation sector, which was applied in all provinces of China except Beijing and Tibet. We find that this policy intervention resulted in substantial growth in air transport passengers and cargo. We estimate the causal effect of air transport on productivity by comparing GDP per employee in Tibet relative to a synthetic control region affected by the deregulation policy. We find a significant positive productivity effect from aviation expansion following the 2003 deregulation. Use of a differences-in-differences specification con-firms this result
Date Acceptance
2020-12-07
Citation
Economics of Transportation, 24
ISSN
2212-0122
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Economics of Transportation
Volume
24
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212012220301313
Grant Number
EP/M027988/1
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-01-06