Coordination and uncertainty in strategic network investment: Case on the North Seas Grid
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Accepted version
Author(s)
Konstantelos, I
Moreno, R
Strbac, G
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The notion of developing a transnational offshore grid in the North Sea has attracted considerable attention in the past years due to its potential for substantial capital savings and increased scope for cross-border trade, sparking a European-wide policy debate on incentivizing integrated transmission solutions. However, one important aspect that has so far received limited attention is that benefits will largely depend on the eventual deployment pattern of electricity infrastructure which is currently characterized by severe locational, sizing and timing uncertainty. Given the lack of coordination between generation and network developments across Europe, there is a real risk for over-investment or a premature lock-in to options that exhibit limited adaptability. In the near future, important choices that have to be made concerning the network topology and amount of investment. In this paper we identify the optimal, in terms of reduced cost, network investment (including topology) in the North Seas countries under four deployment scenarios and five distinct policy choices differing in the level of offshore coordination and international market integration. By drawing comparisons between the study results, we quantify the net benefit of enabling different types of coordination under each scenario. Furthermore, we showcase a novel min–max regret optimization model and identify minimum regret first-stage commitments which could be deployed in the near future in order to enhance strategic optionality, increase adaptability to different future conditions and hence reduce any potential sub-optimality of the initial network design. In view of the above, we put forward specific policy recommendations regarding the adoption of a flexible anticipatory expansion framework for the identification of attractive investment opportunities under uncertainty.
Date Issued
2017-05-01
Date Acceptance
2017-03-20
Citation
ENERGY ECONOMICS, 2017, 64, pp.131-148
ISSN
0140-9883
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Start Page
131
End Page
148
Journal / Book Title
ENERGY ECONOMICS
Volume
64
Copyright Statement
© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000404704900012&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
EP/K039326/1
EP/L024756/1
Subjects
Social Sciences
Economics
Business & Economics
Onshore and offshore transmission investment
Cross-border interconnection
Offshore coordination
Min-max regret planning
Net benefit allocation
ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
VALUATION
RISK
Publication Status
Published