Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Arnell, NW
Kay, AL
Freeman, A
Rudd, AC
Lowe, JA
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper presents a consistent series of policy-relevant indicators of changing climate hazards
and resources for the UK, spanning the health, transport, energy, agriculture, flood and water
sectors and based on UKCP18 climate projections. In the absence of explicit adaptation, risks will
increase across the whole of the UK, but at different rates and from different starting values in
different regions. The likelihood of heat extremes affecting health, the road and rail network and
crop growth will increase very markedly. Agricultural and hydrological drought risks increase
across the UK, as does wildfire danger. River flood risk increases particularly in the north and west. Demand for cooling energy will increase, but demand for heating energy will decline. Crop growing degree days will increase, benefiting the production of perennial crops. In general, the risks associated with high temperature extremes will increase the most in warmer southern and
eastern England, but the rate of increase from a lower base may be greater further north and west.
Reducing emissions reduces risks in the long term but has little effect over the next two or three
decades.
The results provide evidence to support the development of national and local climate and
resilience policy. Measures to enhance resilience are needed alongside policies to achieve net zero
emissions by 2050. Resilience policy should recognise the variability in change in risk across the
UK, and therefore different local priorities. Explicit choices need to be made about ‘worst case’
emissions scenarios as they can influence strongly estimated changes in risk: the increase in risk
with RCP8.5 can be considerably higher than with a pathway reaching 4 ◦C by 2100.
and resources for the UK, spanning the health, transport, energy, agriculture, flood and water
sectors and based on UKCP18 climate projections. In the absence of explicit adaptation, risks will
increase across the whole of the UK, but at different rates and from different starting values in
different regions. The likelihood of heat extremes affecting health, the road and rail network and
crop growth will increase very markedly. Agricultural and hydrological drought risks increase
across the UK, as does wildfire danger. River flood risk increases particularly in the north and west. Demand for cooling energy will increase, but demand for heating energy will decline. Crop growing degree days will increase, benefiting the production of perennial crops. In general, the risks associated with high temperature extremes will increase the most in warmer southern and
eastern England, but the rate of increase from a lower base may be greater further north and west.
Reducing emissions reduces risks in the long term but has little effect over the next two or three
decades.
The results provide evidence to support the development of national and local climate and
resilience policy. Measures to enhance resilience are needed alongside policies to achieve net zero
emissions by 2050. Resilience policy should recognise the variability in change in risk across the
UK, and therefore different local priorities. Explicit choices need to be made about ‘worst case’
emissions scenarios as they can influence strongly estimated changes in risk: the increase in risk
with RCP8.5 can be considerably higher than with a pathway reaching 4 ◦C by 2100.
Date Issued
2021-01-01
Date Acceptance
2020-12-14
Citation
Climate Risk Management, 2021, 31
ISSN
2212-0963
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Climate Risk Management
Volume
31
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096320300553?via%3Dihub
Subjects
Adaptation
BRITAIN
Climate risk
DROUGHT
Droughts
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Environmental Studies
Floods
Heatwaves
IMPACTS
INDEXES
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
MANAGEMENT
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
MORTALITY
Physical Sciences
PROJECTIONS
REGIONAL-VARIATIONS
Resilience
Science & Technology
UKCP18
UNITED-KINGDOM
WEATHER
Wildfire
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
UK
Article Number
100265
Date Publish Online
2020-12-17