Climate models underestimate global decreases in high‐cloud amount with warming
Author(s)
Wilson Kemsley, S
Nowack, P
Ceppi, P
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Cloud feedback has prevailed as a leading source of uncertainty in climate model projections under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Cloud-controlling factor (CCF) analysis is an approach used to observationally constrain cloud feedback, and subsequently the climate sensitivity. Although high clouds contribute significantly toward uncertainty, they have received comparatively little attention in CCF and other observational analyses. Here we use CCF analysis for the first time to constrain the high-cloud radiative feedback, focusing on the cloud amount component owing to its dominant contribution to uncertainty in high-cloud feedback. Globally, observations indicate larger decreases in high cloudiness than state-of-the-art climate models suggest. In fact, half of the 16 models considered here predict radiative feedbacks inconsistent with observations, likely due to misrepresenting the stability iris mechanism. Despite the suggested strong high-cloud amount decreases with warming, observations point toward a near-neutral net high-cloud amount radiative feedback, owing to almost canceling longwave and shortwave contributions.
Date Issued
2025-04-16
Date Acceptance
2025-02-11
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, 52 (7)
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
52
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2025. The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
10.1029/2024GL113316
Subjects
S. Wilson Kemsley
P. Nowack
P. Ceppi
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e2024GL113316
Date Publish Online
2025-04-09