SICRET: Supernova Ia Cosmology with truncated marginal neural Ratio EsTimation
File(s)2209.06733v2.pdf (2.6 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Karchev, Konstantin
Trotta, Roberto
Weniger, Christoph
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), standardizable candles that allow tracing the expansion history of the Universe, are instrumental in constraining cosmological parameters, particularly dark energy. State-of-the-art likelihood-based analyses scale poorly to future large data sets, are limited to simplified probabilistic descriptions, and must explicitly sample a high-dimensional latent posterior to infer the few parameters of interest, which makes them inefficient. Marginal likelihood-free inference, on the other hand, is based on forward simulations of data, and thus can fully account for complicated redshift uncertainties, contamination from non-SN Ia sources, selection effects, and a realistic instrumental model. All latent parameters, including instrumental and survey-related ones, per object and population-level properties, are implicitly marginalized, while the cosmological parameters of interest are inferred directly. As a proof of concept, we apply truncated marginal neural ratio estimation (TMNRE), a form of marginal likelihood-free inference, to BAHAMAS, a Bayesian hierarchical model for SALT parameters. We verify that TMNRE produces unbiased and precise posteriors for cosmological parameters from up to 100 000 SNe Ia. With minimal additional effort, we train a network to infer simultaneously the
Date Issued
2023-03
Date Acceptance
2022-12-20
Citation
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2023, 520 (1), pp.1056-1072
ISSN
0035-8711
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Start Page
1056
End Page
1072
Journal / Book Title
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume
520
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2023 Oxford University Press. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 2023 following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Konstantin Karchev, Roberto Trotta, Christoph Weniger, SICRET: Supernova Ia Cosmology with truncated marginal neural Ratio EsTimation, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 520, Issue 1, March 2023, Pages 1056–1072 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac3785
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000926956600002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
(cosmology)
Astronomy & Astrophysics
CONSTRAINTS
cosmological parameters - methods
DARK ENERGY
DISTANCES
LIGHT CURVES
PANTHEON PLUS ANALYSIS
PARAMETERS
PECULIAR VELOCITIES
PHOTOMETRIC CLASSIFICATION
Physical Sciences
SAMPLE
Science & Technology
statistical
SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-12-30