Green, yellow, red, or out of the blue? An assessment of Traffic Light Schemes to mitigate the impact of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity
File(s)2021_Article_.pdf (2.2 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Bommer, Julian
Verdon, James P
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Mitigating hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity (HF-IS) poses a challenge for shale gas companies and regulators alike. The use of Traffic Light Schemes (TLSs) is the most common way by which the hazards associated with HF-IS are mitigated. In this study, we discuss the implicit risk mitigation objectives of TLSs and explain the advantages of magnitude as the fundamental parameter to characterise induced seismic hazard. We go on to investigate some of the key assumptions on which TLSs are based, namely that magnitudes evolve relatively gradually from green to yellow to red thresholds (as opposed to larger events occurring “out-of-the-blue”), and that trailing event magnitudes do not increase substantially after injection stops. We compile HF-IS datasets from around the world, including the USA, Canada, the UK, and China, and track the temporal evolution of magnitudes in order to evaluate the extent to which magnitude jumps (i.e. sharp increases in magnitude from preceding events within a sequence) and trailing events occur. We find in the majority of cases magnitude jumps are less than 2 units. One quarter of cases experienced a post-injection magnitude increase, with the largest being 1.6. Trailing event increases generally occurred soon after injection, with most cases showing no increase in magnitude more than a few days after then end of injection. Hence, the effective operation of TLSs may require red-light thresholds to be set as much as two magnitude units below the threshold that the scheme is intended to avoid.
Date Issued
2021-02-01
Date Acceptance
2020-10-15
Citation
Journal of Seismology, 2021, 25 (1), pp.301-326
ISSN
1383-4649
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
301
End Page
326
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Seismology
Volume
25
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10950-020-09966-9
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Induced seismicity
Traffic light schemes
Earthquake forecasting
WASTE-WATER INJECTION
PRODUCTION-INDUCED EARTHQUAKES
SICHUAN BASIN
GAS-FIELD
FOX CREEK
MAGNITUDE
GRONINGEN
HAZARD
CAPABILITY
OKLAHOMA
Geochemistry & Geophysics
0404 Geophysics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-10-28