Revisiting the wintertime emergent constraint of the southern hemispheric midlatitude jet response to global warming
File(s)wcd-4-39-2023.pdf (3.65 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Breul, Philipp
Ceppi, Paulo
Shepherd, Theodore G
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Most climate models show a poleward shift of the southern hemispheric zonal-mean jet in response to climate change, but the inter-model spread is large. In an attempt to constrain future jet responses, past studies have identified an emergent constraint between the climatological jet latitude and the future jet shift in austral winter. However, we show that the emergent constraint only arises in the zonal mean and not in separate halves of the hemisphere, which questions the physicality of the emergent constraint. We further find that the zonal-mean jet latitude does not represent the latitude of a zonally coherent structure, due to the presence of a double-jet structure in the Pacific region during this season. The zonal asymmetry causes the previously noted large spread in the zonal-mean climatology but not in the response, which underlies the emergent constraint. We therefore argue that the emergent constraint on the zonal-mean jet cannot narrow down the spread in future wind responses, and we propose that emergent constraints on the jet response in austral winter should be based on regional rather than zonal-mean circulation features.
Date Issued
2023-01-10
Date Acceptance
2022-11-20
Citation
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2023, 4 (1), pp.39-47
ISSN
2698-4016
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
Start Page
39
End Page
47
Journal / Book Title
Weather and Climate Dynamics
Volume
4
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-01-10