Integrated assessment model (simulation) for qatar energy transition: energy and environmental implications for resilient decarbonisation pathways
File(s)
Author(s)
Al-Qassabi, Alaa
Type
Thesis
Abstract
The energy transition in hydrocarbon-rich economies presents a dual challenge of mitigating its environmental footprint while safeguarding economic stability and sustaining system resilience. For Qatar, however, the transition is not only a matter of domestic benefit. As one of the world’s largest energy exporters, leading the decarbonisation agenda among fossil fuel-dependent countries offers an opportunity to enhance the international perception of its export commodities, thereby opening a wider window for investment and market access.
Addressing these challenges requires a robust policy discourse, which can be strengthened through energy system modelling tools. This thesis contributes to the knowledge base on Qatar sustainable transition by examining the likely evolution of its energy system under alternative decarbonisation pathways. The research is organised into three principal components: a novel simulation model using MUSE platform for Qatar energy system transition under BAU, NDC, and NZ50 scenarios targeting accounting-based emissions reductions; a comparative analysis with an optimisation-based framework using TIMES platform; and a modelled assessment of Qatar’s potential transition towards a hydrogen-based export future as a potential pathway to reduce global emissions.
The novelty of this work is rooted in creating a partial-equilibrium simulation model for Qatar energy system which is unprecedented in the literature using a state-of-the-art simulation framework. The work is designed to be extensible, not only offering insights for energy policy but also serving as a basis for exploring related research areas such as carbon pricing strategies, market evolution uncertainties, or trade competitiveness of low-carbon fuels. Since the modelling framework is open-source and relies on publicly available datasets, it is replicable and adaptable for comparative studies. Moreover, the approach can be extended to other hydrocarbon-dependent countries in the region, providing a transferable framework for assessing pathways towards sustainable energy transitions in similar contexts.
Addressing these challenges requires a robust policy discourse, which can be strengthened through energy system modelling tools. This thesis contributes to the knowledge base on Qatar sustainable transition by examining the likely evolution of its energy system under alternative decarbonisation pathways. The research is organised into three principal components: a novel simulation model using MUSE platform for Qatar energy system transition under BAU, NDC, and NZ50 scenarios targeting accounting-based emissions reductions; a comparative analysis with an optimisation-based framework using TIMES platform; and a modelled assessment of Qatar’s potential transition towards a hydrogen-based export future as a potential pathway to reduce global emissions.
The novelty of this work is rooted in creating a partial-equilibrium simulation model for Qatar energy system which is unprecedented in the literature using a state-of-the-art simulation framework. The work is designed to be extensible, not only offering insights for energy policy but also serving as a basis for exploring related research areas such as carbon pricing strategies, market evolution uncertainties, or trade competitiveness of low-carbon fuels. Since the modelling framework is open-source and relies on publicly available datasets, it is replicable and adaptable for comparative studies. Moreover, the approach can be extended to other hydrocarbon-dependent countries in the region, providing a transferable framework for assessing pathways towards sustainable energy transitions in similar contexts.
Version
Open Access
Date Issued
2025-10-12
Date Awarded
2026-05-01
Copyright Statement
Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International Licence (CC BY NC-SA)
Advisor
Hawkes, Adam
Publisher Department
Department of Chemical Engineering
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Doctoral
Qualification Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)