Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Scenarios from integrated assessment models can provide insights into how carbon budgets relate to other policy-relevant indicators by including information on how fast and by how much emissions can be reduced. Such indicators include the peak year of global emissions, the decarbonisation rate and the deployment of low-carbon technology. Here, we show typical values for these indicators for different carbon budgets, using the recently compiled IPCC scenario database, and discuss how these vary as a function of non-CO2 forcing, energy use and policy delay. For carbon budgets of 2000 GtCO2 and less over the 2010–2100 period, supply of low carbon technologies needs to be scaled up massively from today's levels, unless energy use is relatively low. For the subgroup of scenarios with a budget below 1000 GtCO2 (consistent with >66% chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels), the 2050 contribution of low-carbon technologies is generally around 50%–75%, compared to less than 20% today (range refers to the 10–90th interval of available data).
Date Issued
2016-07-14
Date Acceptance
2016-06-23
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2016, 11 (7)
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
Institute of Physics (IoP)
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
11
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from thiswork may be used underthe terms of theCreativeCommons Attribution 3.0licence.Any further distribution ofthis work must maintainattribution to theauthor(s)and the title ofthe work, journal citationand DOI.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000380817000031&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
carbon budget
mitigation strategy
climate policy
integrated assessment
STAGED ACCESSION SCENARIOS
BREAKING CLIMATE TARGETS
2 DEGREES-C
CO2 EMISSIONS
POLICY
MITIGATION
MODEL
RISK
STRATEGIES
OPTIONS
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 075002
Date Publish Online
2016-07-14