Bounded analysis of constrained dynamical systems: a case study in nuclear arms control
File(s)a273_1.pdf (235.63 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Huth, MRA
Beaumont, P
Evans, N
Plant, T
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
We introduce a simple dynamical system that describes key features of a bilateral nuclear arms
control regime. The evolution of each party's beliefs and declarations under the regime are represented, and
the e ects of inspection processes are captured. Bounded analysis of this model allows us to explore { within
a nite horizon { the consequences of changes to the rules of the arms control process and to the strategies
of each party, bounded scope invariants for variables of interest, and dynamics for initial states containing
strict uncertainty. Together these would potentially enable a decision support system to consider cases
of interest irrespective of unknowns. We realize such abilities by building a Python package that draws
on the capabilities of a Satis ability Modulo Theory (SMT) solver to explore particular scenarios and to
optimize measures of interest { such as the belief of one nation in the statements made by another, or
the timing of an unscheduled inspection such that it has maximum value. We show that these capabilities
can in principle support the design or assessment of future bilateral arms control instruments by applying
them to a set of representative and relevant test scenarios with realistic nite horizons.
control regime. The evolution of each party's beliefs and declarations under the regime are represented, and
the e ects of inspection processes are captured. Bounded analysis of this model allows us to explore { within
a nite horizon { the consequences of changes to the rules of the arms control process and to the strategies
of each party, bounded scope invariants for variables of interest, and dynamics for initial states containing
strict uncertainty. Together these would potentially enable a decision support system to consider cases
of interest irrespective of unknowns. We realize such abilities by building a Python package that draws
on the capabilities of a Satis ability Modulo Theory (SMT) solver to explore particular scenarios and to
optimize measures of interest { such as the belief of one nation in the statements made by another, or
the timing of an unscheduled inspection such that it has maximum value. We show that these capabilities
can in principle support the design or assessment of future bilateral arms control instruments by applying
them to a set of representative and relevant test scenarios with realistic nite horizons.
Date Issued
2016-07-24
Date Acceptance
2016-07-09
Citation
Proceedings of the 57th INMM Annual Meeting, 2016
Publisher
Institute of Nuclear Materials Management
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the 57th INMM Annual Meeting
Copyright Statement
Originally published in the Proceedings of the INMM Annual Meeting. © 2016 INMM. All Rights Reserved.
Sponsor
AWE Plc
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Grant Number
PO 30285060/2
EP/N020030/1
Source
INMM Annual Conference 2016
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2016-07-24
Finish Date
2016-07-28
Coverage Spatial
Atlanta, Georgia