Independent external validation of the QRISK3 cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using UK Biobank
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Objective To externally evaluate the performance of QRISK3 for predicting 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the UK Biobank cohort.
Methods We used data from the UK Biobank, a large-scale prospective cohort study of 403 370 participants aged 40–69 years recruited between 2006 and 2010 in the UK. We included participants with no previous history of CVD or statin treatment and defined the outcome to be the first occurrence of coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, derived from linked hospital inpatient records and death registrations.
Results Our study population included 233 233 women and 170 137 men, with 9295 and 13 028 incident CVD events, respectively. Overall, QRISK3 had moderate discrimination for UK Biobank participants (Harrell’s C-statistic 0.722 in women and 0.697 in men) and discrimination declined by age (<0.62 in all participants aged 65 years or older). QRISK3 systematically overpredicted CVD risk in UK Biobank, particularly in older participants, by as much as 20%.
Conclusions QRISK3 had moderate overall discrimination in UK Biobank, which was best in younger participants. The observed CVD risk for UK Biobank participants was lower than that predicted by QRISK3, particularly for older participants. It may be necessary to recalibrate QRISK3 or use an alternate model in studies that require accurate CVD risk prediction in UK Biobank.
Methods We used data from the UK Biobank, a large-scale prospective cohort study of 403 370 participants aged 40–69 years recruited between 2006 and 2010 in the UK. We included participants with no previous history of CVD or statin treatment and defined the outcome to be the first occurrence of coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, derived from linked hospital inpatient records and death registrations.
Results Our study population included 233 233 women and 170 137 men, with 9295 and 13 028 incident CVD events, respectively. Overall, QRISK3 had moderate discrimination for UK Biobank participants (Harrell’s C-statistic 0.722 in women and 0.697 in men) and discrimination declined by age (<0.62 in all participants aged 65 years or older). QRISK3 systematically overpredicted CVD risk in UK Biobank, particularly in older participants, by as much as 20%.
Conclusions QRISK3 had moderate overall discrimination in UK Biobank, which was best in younger participants. The observed CVD risk for UK Biobank participants was lower than that predicted by QRISK3, particularly for older participants. It may be necessary to recalibrate QRISK3 or use an alternate model in studies that require accurate CVD risk prediction in UK Biobank.
Date Issued
2023-10-26
Date Acceptance
2023-06-20
Citation
Heart, 2023, 109 (22), pp.1690-1697
ISSN
1355-6037
Publisher
BMJ
Start Page
1690
End Page
1697
Journal / Book Title
Heart
Volume
109
Issue
22
Copyright Statement
Copyright information
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2022-321231
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-07-09