High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Pigs have long been hypothesized to play a central role in the emergence of novel human influenza A virus (IAV) strains, by serving as mixing vessels for mammalian and avian variants. However, the key issue of viral persistence in swine populations at different scales is ill understood. We address this gap using epidemiological models calibrated against seroprevalence data from Dutch finishing pigs to estimate the 'critical herd size' (CHS) for IAV persistence. We then examine the viral phylogenetic evidence for persistence by comparing human and swine IAV. Models suggest a CHS of approximately 3000 pigs above which influenza was likely to persist, i.e. orders of magnitude lower than persistence thresholds for IAV and other acute viruses in humans. At national and regional scales, we found much stronger empirical signatures of prolonged persistence of IAV in swine compared with human populations. These striking levels of persistence in small populations are driven by the high recruitment rate of susceptible piglets, and have significant implications for management of swine and for overall patterns of genetic diversity of IAV.
Date Issued
2016-06-29
Date Acceptance
2016-06-08
Citation
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2016, 13 (119)
ISSN
1742-5689
Publisher
Royal Society, The
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume
13
Issue
119
Copyright Statement
© 2016 The Authors.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Sponsor
Wellcome Trust
National Institutes of Health
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
National Institute for Health Research
National Institutes of Health
Burroughs Wellcome Fund
Wellcome Trust
Wellcome Trust
Identifier
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27358277
PII: rsif.2016.0138
Grant Number
093488/Z/10/Z
5R01TW008246-04
MR/J008761/1
HPRU-2012-10080
IS-HPU-1112-10064
1U01GM110721-01
1006576.01
200187/Z/15/Z
200861/Z/16/Z
Subjects
Influenza
Mathematical modelling
Surveillance
Swine
Transmission dynamics
General Science & Technology
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
ARTN 20160138