Polarized Ukraine 2014: opinion and territorial split demonstrated with the bounded confidence by model, parametrized XY Twitter data
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Published version
Author(s)
Romenskyy, Maksym
Spaiser, Viktoria
Ihle, Thomas
Lobaskin, Vladimir
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Multiple countries have recently experienced extreme political polarization, which, in some cases, led to escalation of hate crime, violence and political instability. Besides the much discussed presidential elections in the USA and France, Britain's Brexit vote and Turkish constitutional referendum showed signs of extreme polarization. Among the countries affected, Ukraine faced some of the gravest consequences. In an attempt to understand the mechanisms of these phenomena, we here combine social media analysis with agent-based modelling of opinion dynamics, targeting Ukraine's crisis of 2014. We use Twitter data to quantify changes in the opinion divide and parametrize an extended bounded confidence XY model, which provides a spatio-temporal description of the polarization dynamics. We demonstrate that the level of emotional intensity is a major driving force for polarization that can lead to a spontaneous onset of collective behaviour at a certain degree of homophily and conformity. We find that the critical level of emotional intensity corresponds to a polarization transition, marked by a sudden increase in the degree of involvement and in the opinion bimodality.
Date Issued
2018-08-01
Date Acceptance
2018-07-04
Citation
Royal Society Open Science, 2018, 5 (8)
ISSN
2054-5703
Publisher
Royal Society, The
Journal / Book Title
Royal Society Open Science
Volume
5
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000443443000010&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
Ukraine
political polarization
opinion dynamics
bounded confidence XY model
Twitter
natural language processing
BIASED ASSIMILATION
ATTITUDE POLARIZATION
DYNAMICS
EXTREMITY
CONSENSUS
FEATHER
BIRDS
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 171935
Date Publish Online
2018-08-01