Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
If pathogen species, strains, or clones do not interact, intuition suggests the proportion of coinfected hosts should be the product of the individual prevalences. Independence consequently underpins the wide range of methods for detecting pathogen interactions from cross-sectional survey data. However, the very simplest of epidemiological models challenge the underlying assumption of statistical independence. Even if pathogens do not interact, death of coinfected hosts causes net prevalences of individual pathogens to decrease simultaneously. The induced positive correlation between prevalences means the proportion of coinfected hosts is expected to be higher than multiplication would suggest. By modelling the dynamics of multiple noninteracting pathogens causing chronic infections, we develop a pair of novel tests of interaction that properly account for nonindependence between pathogens causing lifelong infection. Our tests allow us to reinterpret data from previous studies including pathogens of humans, plants, and animals. Our work demonstrates how methods to identify interactions between pathogens can be updated using simple epidemic models.
Date Issued
2020-10-21
Date Acceptance
2019-11-04
Citation
PLoS Biology, 2020, 17 (12)
ISSN
1544-9173
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Biology
Volume
17
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31794547
PII: PBIOLOGY-D-19-02368
Subjects
06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical and Health Sciences
07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences
Developmental Biology
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Article Number
e3000551
Date Publish Online
2019-12-03