COVID-19 Scenario Analysis Tool. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London. Available at: covidsim.org.

The COVID-19 Scenario Analysis Tool enables users to quickly and easily generate calibrated forward scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic in individual countries under different control scenarios.
The tool utilises an age-structured SEIR model incorporating explicit passage through disease severity settings and healthcare. Details of the model and its baseline parameters are given below. The work builds from the work reported in Report 12 – “The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression”. A parallel R package – squire – is available from the MRC Centre for Infectious Disease Analysis GitHub site for academic purposes. The model is calibrated to the cumulative COVID-19 deaths reported to date, obtained from the European Centres for Disease Control. The COVID-19 Scenario Analysis Tool uses an age-structured SEIR model, with the infectious class divided into different stages reflecting progression through different disease severity pathways.