Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress
File(s)Grassi et al. Text, Figs 12032021.docx (1.81 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, however, a mismatch of ~5.5 GtCO2 yr−1 exists between the global land-use fluxes estimated with IAMs and from countries’ GHG inventories. Here we present a ‘Rosetta stone’ adjustment to translate IAMs’ land-use mitigation pathways to estimates more comparable with GHG inventories. This does not change the original decarbonization pathways, but reallocates part of the land sink to be consistent with GHG inventories. Adjusted cumulative emissions over the period until net zero for 1.5 or 2 °C limits are reduced by 120–192 GtCO2 relative to the original IAM pathways. These differences should be taken into account to ensure an accurate assessment of progress towards the Paris Agreement.
Date Issued
2021-05
Date Acceptance
2021-03-26
Citation
Nature Climate Change, 2021, 11 (5), pp.425-434
ISSN
1758-678X
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Start Page
425
End Page
434
Journal / Book Title
Nature Climate Change
Volume
11
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01033-6
Subjects
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
0502 Environmental Science and Management
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-04-26