A systematic review of Nipah virus disease epidemiological parameters, outbreaks and mathematical models
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Accepted version
Supporting information
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We conducted a systematic review, following PRISMA guidelines (PROSPERO CRD42023393345), characterising the epidemiology, outbreaks and mathematical models of Nipah virus (NiV), an important public health threat in South and Southeast Asia. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception through to 14 March 2025, and extracted 243 parameters, 89 risk factors, 39 models and 23 distinct outbreaks from 119 papers. IgG seroprevalence estimates in the general population ranged from 0% to 12.5%. NiV causes severe disease, with pooled case-fatality ratio estimates ranging widely from 9.1% (95%CI: 0.2%-41.3%) in Singapore to 81.9% (95%CI: 71.9%-88.9%) in Bangladesh. NiV's infection timeline and clinical course remain poorly characterised; we estimated a median incubation period of 8.77 days (n=165, 95%CI: 7.53-10.02) from 8 estimates in 7 articles with sufficient information. Transmission parameter estimates were scarce, and all but one of five central estimates of the basic reproduction number were below 1. NiV mathematical models (n=39) were rarely fitted to data (n=8). All extracted information is accessible via our R package, epireview.
Date Issued
2026-07-14
Date Acceptance
2026-05-04
Citation
The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2026
ISSN
1473-3099
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Copyright Statement
© 2026 Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved. This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
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Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2026-07-14