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  4. Estimating the costs of air pollution to the National Health Service and social care: An assessment and forecast up to 2035
 
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Estimating the costs of air pollution to the National Health Service and social care: An assessment and forecast up to 2035
File(s)
journal.pmed.1002602.pdf (1.29 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Pimpin, Laura
Retat, Lise
Fecht, Daniela
de Preux, Laure
Sassi, Franco
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Air pollution damages health by promoting the onset of some non-communicable diseases (NCDs), putting additional strain on the National Health Service (NHS) and social care. This study quantifies the total health and related NHS and social care cost burden due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in England. METHOD AND FINDINGS: Air pollutant concentration surfaces from land use regression models and cost data from hospital admissions data and a literature review were fed into a microsimulation model, that was run from 2015 to 2035. Different scenarios were modelled: (1) baseline 'no change' scenario; (2) individuals' pollutant exposure is reduced to natural (non-anthropogenic) levels to compute the disease cases attributable to PM2.5 and NO2; (3) PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations reduced by 1 μg/m3; and (4) NO2 annual European Union limit values reached (40 μg/m3). For the 18 years after baseline, the total cumulative cost to the NHS and social care is estimated at £5.37 billion for PM2.5 and NO2 combined, rising to £18.57 billion when costs for diseases for which there is less robust evidence are included. These costs are due to the cumulative incidence of air-pollution-related NCDs, such as 348,878 coronary heart disease cases estimated to be attributable to PM2.5 and 573,363 diabetes cases estimated to be attributable to NO2 by 2035. Findings from modelling studies are limited by the conceptual model, assumptions, and the availability and quality of input data. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 2.5 million cases of NCDs attributable to air pollution are predicted by 2035 if PM2.5 and NO2 stay at current levels, making air pollution an important public health priority. In future work, the modelling framework should be updated to include multi-pollutant exposure-response functions, as well as to disaggregate results by socioeconomic status.
Date Issued
2018-07-10
Date Acceptance
2018-06-04
Citation
PLoS Medicine, 2018, 15 (7)
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/61039
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002602
ISSN
1549-1277
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Medicine
Volume
15
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Pimpin et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Sponsor
UK Health Forum
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29990358
PII: PMEDICINE-D-18-00742
Grant Number
WPEA_P66270
Subjects
11 Medical And Health Sciences
General & Internal Medicine
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Article Number
e1002602
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