Chebychev inequalities for products of random variables
File(s)paper_final.pdf (1.32 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Rujeerapaiboon, N
Kuhn, D
Wiesemann, W
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We derive sharp probability bounds on the tails of a product of symmetric non-negative
random variables using only information about their first two moments. If the covariance
matrix of the random variables is known exactly, these bounds can be computed numerically
using semidefinite programming. If only an upper bound on the covariance matrix is avail-
able, the probability bounds on the right tails can be evaluated analytically. The bounds
under precise and imprecise covariance information coincide for all left tails as well as for all
right tails corresponding to quantiles that are either sufficiently small or sufficiently large.
We also prove that all left probability bounds reduce to the trivial bound 1 if the number
of random variables in the product exceeds an explicit threshold. Thus, in the worst case,
the weak-sense geometric random walk defined through the running product of the random
variables is absorbed at 0 with certainty as soon as time exceeds the given threshold. The
techniques devised for constructing Chebyshev bounds for products can also be used to de-
rive Chebyshev bounds for sums, maxima and minima of non-negative random variables.
random variables using only information about their first two moments. If the covariance
matrix of the random variables is known exactly, these bounds can be computed numerically
using semidefinite programming. If only an upper bound on the covariance matrix is avail-
able, the probability bounds on the right tails can be evaluated analytically. The bounds
under precise and imprecise covariance information coincide for all left tails as well as for all
right tails corresponding to quantiles that are either sufficiently small or sufficiently large.
We also prove that all left probability bounds reduce to the trivial bound 1 if the number
of random variables in the product exceeds an explicit threshold. Thus, in the worst case,
the weak-sense geometric random walk defined through the running product of the random
variables is absorbed at 0 with certainty as soon as time exceeds the given threshold. The
techniques devised for constructing Chebyshev bounds for products can also be used to de-
rive Chebyshev bounds for sums, maxima and minima of non-negative random variables.
Date Issued
2018-08-01
Date Acceptance
2017-06-17
Citation
Mathematics of Operations Research, 2018, 43 (3), pp.693-1050
ISSN
1526-5471
Publisher
INFORMS (Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences)
Start Page
693
End Page
1050
Journal / Book Title
Mathematics of Operations Research
Volume
43
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2018, INFORMS
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Grant Number
EP/M028240/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Physical Sciences
Operations Research & Management Science
Mathematics, Applied
Mathematics
Chebyshev inequality
probability bounds
distributionally robust optimization
convex optimization
DISTRIBUTIONALLY ROBUST OPTIMIZATION
UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION
CONVEX-OPTIMIZATION
0102 Applied Mathematics
0103 Numerical And Computational Mathematics
0802 Computation Theory And Mathematics
Operations Research
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-02-16