Distributionally robust trading strategies for renewable energy producers
File(s)Newsvendor_DistRobust_IEEE.pdf (2.11 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Pinson, Pierre
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Renewable energy generation is offered through electricity markets, quite some time in advance. This then leads to a problem of decision-making under uncertainty, which may be seen as a newsvendor problem. Contrarily to the conventional case for which underage and overage penalties are known, such penalties in the case of electricity markets are unknown, and difficult to estimate. In addition, one is actually only penalized for either overage or underage, not both. Consequently, we look at a slightly different form of a newsvendor problem, for a price-taker participant offering in electricity markets, which we refer to as Bernoulli newsvendor problem. After showing that its solution is consistent with that for the classical newsvendor problem, we then introduce distributionally robust versions, with ambiguity possibly about both the probabilistic forecasts for power generation and the chance of success of the Bernoulli variable. Both versions of the distributionally robust Bernoulli newsvendor problem admit closed-form solutions. We finally use simulation studies, as well as a real-world case-study application, to illustrate the workings and benefits from the approach.
Date Issued
2023-03
Date Acceptance
2023-01-28
Citation
IEEE Transactions on Energy Markets, Policy and Regulation, 2023, 1 (1), pp.37-47
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Start Page
37
End Page
47
Journal / Book Title
IEEE Transactions on Energy Markets, Policy and Regulation
Volume
1
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2023 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tempr.2023.3241232
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-01-31