This publication is designed to provide programme managers with a user-friendly tool that can: (i) analyse and draw conclusions from historic dengue datasets; (ii) identify appropriate alarm indicators that can sensitively and specifically predict forthcoming outbreaks at smaller spatial scales; and (iii) use these results and analyses to predict and build an early warning system to detect dengue outbreaks in real-time. Together, these three components build technical capacity and provide a standardized methodology for predicting dengue outbreaks in countries where skills and resources are currently constrained.

This guide was produced by TDR together with the World Health Organization’s Neglected Tropical Diseases department and regional offices, in the context of a European Union-financed research programme, the International Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment, management and Surveillance (IDAMS), to develop an evidence-based early warning system for outbreak detection and management of dengue fever outbreaks.