Machine learning-derived cycle length variability metrics predict spontaneously terminating ventricular tachycardia in implantable cardioverter defibrillator recipients
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Aims
Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapies have been associated with increased mortality and should be minimized when safe to do so. We hypothesized that machine learning-derived ventricular tachycardia (VT) cycle length (CL) variability metrics could be used to discriminate between sustained and spontaneously terminating VT.
Methods and results
In this single-centre retrospective study, we analysed data from 69 VT episodes stored on ICDs from 27 patients (36 spontaneously terminating VT, 33 sustained VT). Several VT CL parameters including heart rate variability metrics were calculated. Additionally, a first order auto-regression model was fitted using the first 10 CLs. Using features derived from the first 10 CLs, a random forest classifier was used to predict VT termination. Sustained VT episodes had more stable CLs. Using data from the first 10 CLs only, there was greater CL variability in the spontaneously terminating episodes (mean of standard deviation of first 10 CLs: 20.1 ± 8.9 vs. 11.5 ± 7.8 ms, P < 0.0001). The auto-regression coefficient was significantly greater in spontaneously terminating episodes (mean auto-regression coefficient 0.39 ± 0.32 vs. 0.14 ± 0.39, P < 0.005). A random forest classifier with six features yielded an accuracy of 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.67 to 0.87) for prediction of VT termination.
Conclusion
Ventricular tachycardia CL variability and instability are associated with spontaneously terminating VT and can be used to predict spontaneous VT termination. Given the harmful effects of unnecessary ICD shocks, this machine learning model could be incorporated into ICD algorithms to defer therapies for episodes of VT that are likely to self-terminate.
Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapies have been associated with increased mortality and should be minimized when safe to do so. We hypothesized that machine learning-derived ventricular tachycardia (VT) cycle length (CL) variability metrics could be used to discriminate between sustained and spontaneously terminating VT.
Methods and results
In this single-centre retrospective study, we analysed data from 69 VT episodes stored on ICDs from 27 patients (36 spontaneously terminating VT, 33 sustained VT). Several VT CL parameters including heart rate variability metrics were calculated. Additionally, a first order auto-regression model was fitted using the first 10 CLs. Using features derived from the first 10 CLs, a random forest classifier was used to predict VT termination. Sustained VT episodes had more stable CLs. Using data from the first 10 CLs only, there was greater CL variability in the spontaneously terminating episodes (mean of standard deviation of first 10 CLs: 20.1 ± 8.9 vs. 11.5 ± 7.8 ms, P < 0.0001). The auto-regression coefficient was significantly greater in spontaneously terminating episodes (mean auto-regression coefficient 0.39 ± 0.32 vs. 0.14 ± 0.39, P < 0.005). A random forest classifier with six features yielded an accuracy of 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.67 to 0.87) for prediction of VT termination.
Conclusion
Ventricular tachycardia CL variability and instability are associated with spontaneously terminating VT and can be used to predict spontaneous VT termination. Given the harmful effects of unnecessary ICD shocks, this machine learning model could be incorporated into ICD algorithms to defer therapies for episodes of VT that are likely to self-terminate.
Date Issued
2024-01
Date Acceptance
2023-10-16
Citation
European Heart Journal: Digital Health, 2024, 5 (1), pp.50-59
ISSN
2634-3916
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Start Page
50
End Page
59
Journal / Book Title
European Heart Journal: Digital Health
Volume
5
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ehjdh/ztad064
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ztad064
Date Publish Online
2023-10-24