A hazard-based approach to modelling the effects of online shopping on intershopping duration
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Suel, E
Daina, N
Polak, JW
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Despite growing prevalence of online shopping, its impacts on mobility are poorly
understood. This partially results from the lack of sufficiently detailed data. In this
paper we address this gap using consumer panel data, a new dataset for this context.
We analyse one year long longitudinal grocery shopping purchase data from London
shoppers to investigate the effects of online shopping on overall shopping activity pat-
terns and personal trips. We characterise the temporal structure of shopping demand
by means of the duration between shopping episodes using hazard-based duration
models. These models have been used to study inter-shopping spells for traditional
shopping in the literature, however effects of online shopping were not considered.
Here, we differentiate between shopping events and shopping trips. The former refers
to all types of shopping activity including both online and in-store, while the latter
is restricted to physical shopping trips. Separate models were estimated for each and
results suggest potential substitution effects between online and in-store in the context
of grocery shopping. We find that having shopped online since the last shopping trip
significantly reduces the likelihood of a physical shopping trip. We do not observe
the same effect for inter-event durations. Hence, shopping online does not have a sig-
nificant effect on overall shopping activity frequency, yet affects shopping trip rates.
This is a key finding and suggests potential substitution between online shopping and
physical trips to the store. Additional insights on which factors, including basket size
and demographics, affect inter-shopping durations are also drawn.
understood. This partially results from the lack of sufficiently detailed data. In this
paper we address this gap using consumer panel data, a new dataset for this context.
We analyse one year long longitudinal grocery shopping purchase data from London
shoppers to investigate the effects of online shopping on overall shopping activity pat-
terns and personal trips. We characterise the temporal structure of shopping demand
by means of the duration between shopping episodes using hazard-based duration
models. These models have been used to study inter-shopping spells for traditional
shopping in the literature, however effects of online shopping were not considered.
Here, we differentiate between shopping events and shopping trips. The former refers
to all types of shopping activity including both online and in-store, while the latter
is restricted to physical shopping trips. Separate models were estimated for each and
results suggest potential substitution effects between online and in-store in the context
of grocery shopping. We find that having shopped online since the last shopping trip
significantly reduces the likelihood of a physical shopping trip. We do not observe
the same effect for inter-event durations. Hence, shopping online does not have a sig-
nificant effect on overall shopping activity frequency, yet affects shopping trip rates.
This is a key finding and suggests potential substitution between online shopping and
physical trips to the store. Additional insights on which factors, including basket size
and demographics, affect inter-shopping durations are also drawn.
Date Issued
2017-11-21
Date Acceptance
2017-11-07
Citation
Transportation, 2017
ISSN
1572-9435
Publisher
Springer Verlag
Journal / Book Title
Transportation
License URL
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
EPSRC
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Grant Number
EP/I038837/1
EP/I038837/1
BH151279 (EP/N010612/1)
Subjects
0905 Civil Engineering
1205 Urban And Regional Planning
1507 Transportation And Freight Services
Logistics & Transportation
Publication Status
Published