Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model
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Author(s)
Moustakis, Yiannis
Nützel, Tobias
Wey, Hao-Wei
Bao, Wenkai
Pongratz, Julia
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Despite the increasing relevance of temperature overshoot and the rather ambitious country pledges on Afforestation/Reforestation globally, the mitigation potential and the Earth system responses to large-scale non-idealized Afforestation/Reforestation patterns under a high overshoot scenario remain elusive. Here, we develop an ambitious Afforestation/Reforestation scenario by harnessing 1259 Integrated Assessment Model scenarios, restoration potential maps, and biodiversity constraints, reaching 595 Mha by 2060 and 935 Mha by 2100. We then force the Max Planck Institute’s Earth System Model with this scenario which yields a reduction of peak temperature by 0.08 oC, end-of-century temperature by 0.2 oC, and overshoot duration by 13 years. Afforestation/Reforestation in the range of country pledges globally could thus constitute a useful mitigation tool in overshoot scenarios in addition to fossil fuel emission reductions, but socio-ecological implications need to be scrutinized to avoid severe side effects.
Date Issued
2024-09-19
Date Acceptance
2024-09-07
Citation
Nature Communications, 2024, 15
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
15
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2024 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
8235
Date Publish Online
2024-09-19