How conservation initiatives go to scale
File(s)Mills_et_al.pdf (1.36 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Although a major portion of the planet’s land and sea is managed to conserve biodiversity, little is known about the extent, speed and patterns of adoption of conservation initiatives. We undertook a quantitative exploration of how area-based conservation initiatives go to scale by analysing the adoption of 22 widely recognized and diverse initiatives from across the globe. We use a standardized approach to compare the potential of different initiatives to reach scale. While our study is not exhaustive, our analyses reveal consistent patterns across a variety of initiatives: adoption of most initiatives (82% of our case studies) started slowly before rapidly going to scale. Consistent with diffusion of innovation theory, most initiatives exhibit slow–fast–slow (that is, sigmoidal) dynamics driven by interactions between existing and potential adopters. However, uptake rates and saturation points vary among the initiatives and across localities. Our models suggest that the uptake of most of our case studies is limited; over half of the initiatives will be taken up by <30% of their potential adopters. We also provide a methodology for quantitatively understanding the process of scaling. Our findings inform us how initiatives scale up to widespread adoption, which will facilitate forecasts of the future level of adoption of initiatives, and benchmark their extent and speed of adoption against those of our case studies.
Date Issued
2019-10-01
Date Acceptance
2019-08-21
Citation
Nature Sustainability, 2019, 2 (10), pp.935-940
ISSN
2398-9629
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
935
End Page
940
Journal / Book Title
Nature Sustainability
Volume
2
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2019. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0384-1
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000489530200015&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
Science & Technology - Other Topics
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
PROTECTED AREA NETWORKS
MARINE
PHILIPPINES
DIFFUSION
ECOLOGY
TRENDS
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-10-07