Bayesian workflow for disease transmission modeling in Stan
File(s)Stan_tutorial.pdf (3.95 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Grinsztajn, Léo
Semenova, Elizaveta
Margossian, Charles C
Riou, Julien
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This tutorial shows how to build, fit, and criticize disease transmission models in Stan, and should be useful to researchers interested in modeling the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and other infectious diseases in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian modeling provides a principled way to quantify uncertainty and incorporate both data and prior knowledge into the model estimates. Stan is an expressive probabilistic programming language that abstracts the inference and allows users to focus on the modeling. As a result, Stan code is readable and easily extensible, which makes the modeler's work more transparent. Furthermore, Stan's main inference engine, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling, is amiable to diagnostics, which means the user can verify whether the obtained inference is reliable. In this tutorial, we demonstrate how to formulate, fit, and diagnose a compartmental transmission model in Stan, first with a simple susceptible-infected-recovered model, then with a more elaborate transmission model used during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We also cover advanced topics which can further help practitioners fit sophisticated models; notably, how to use simulations to probe the model and priors, and computational techniques to scale-up models based on ordinary differential equations.
Date Issued
2021-11-30
Date Acceptance
2021-07-29
Citation
Statistics in Medicine, 2021, 40 (27), pp.6209-6234
ISSN
0277-6715
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
6209
End Page
6234
Journal / Book Title
Statistics in Medicine
Volume
40
Issue
27
Copyright Statement
© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article, which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sim.9164. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34494686
Subjects
Bayes Theorem
COVID-19
Humans
Monte Carlo Method
SARS-CoV-2
Workflow
Bayesian workflow
compartmental models
epidemiology
infectious diseases
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2021-09-08