Forecasting with an N-dimensional Langevin equation and a neural-ordinary differential equation
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Author(s)
Malpica-Morales, Antonio
Durán-Olivencia, Miguel A
Kalliadasis, Serafim
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Accurate prediction of electricity day-ahead prices is essential in competitive electricity markets. Although stationary electricity-price forecasting techniques have received considerable attention, research on non-stationary methods is comparatively scarce, despite the common prevalence of non-stationary features in electricity markets. Specifically, existing non-stationary techniques will often aim to address individual non-stationary features in isolation, leaving aside the exploration of concurrent multiple non-stationary effects. Our overarching objective here is the formulation of a framework to systematically model and forecast non-stationary electricity-price time series, encompassing the broader scope of non-stationary behavior. For this purpose, we develop a data-driven model that combines an N-dimensional Langevin equation (LE) with a neural-ordinary differential equation (NODE). The LE captures fine-grained details of the electricity-price behavior in stationary regimes but is inadequate for non-stationary conditions. To overcome this inherent limitation, we adopt a NODE approach to learn, and at the same time predict, the difference between the actual electricity-price time series and the simulated price trajectories generated by the LE. By learning this difference, the NODE reconstructs the non-stationary components of the time series that the LE is not able to capture. We exemplify the effectiveness of our framework using the Spanish electricity day-ahead market as a prototypical case study. Our findings reveal that the NODE nicely complements the LE, providing a comprehensive strategy to tackle both stationary and non-stationary electricity-price behavior. The framework's dependability and robustness is demonstrated through different non-stationary scenarios by comparing it against a range of basic naïve methods.
Date Issued
2024-04
Date Acceptance
2024-02-12
Citation
Chaos: an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science, 2024, 34 (4)
ISSN
1054-1500
Publisher
American Institute of Physics
Journal / Book Title
Chaos: an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science
Volume
34
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2024 Author(s). All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38558046
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Article Number
043105
Date Publish Online
2024-04-01