Past and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood harvest
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Published version
Author(s)
Stocker, BD
Feissli, F
Strassmann, KM
Spahni, R
Joos, F
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Carbon emissions from anthropogenic land use (LU) and land use change (LUC) are quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the past and the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Wood harvesting and parallel abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in areas of shifting cultivation are explicitly simulated (gross LUC) based on the Land Use Harmonization (LUH) dataset and a proposed alternative method that relies on minimum input data and generically accounts for gross LUC. Cumulative global LUC emissions are 72 GtC by 1850 and 243 GtC by 2004 and 27–151 GtC for the next 95 yr following the different RCP scenarios. The alternative method reproduces results based on LUH data with full transition information within <0.1 GtC/yr over the last decades and bears potential for applications in combination with other LU scenarios. In the last decade, shifting cultivation and wood harvest within remaining forests including slash each contributed 19% to the mean annual emissions of 1.2 GtC/yr. These factors, in combination with amplification effects under elevated CO2, contribute substantially to future emissions from LUC in all RCPs.
Date Issued
2014-06-03
Date Acceptance
2014-04-24
Citation
Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 2014, 66
ISSN
1600-0889
Publisher
Co-Action Publishing
Journal / Book Title
Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology
Volume
66
Copyright Statement
© 2014 B. D. Stocker et al. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), allowing third parties to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format and to remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially, provided the original work is properly cited and states its license.
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
land use change
carbon cycle
carbon budget
wood harvest
shifting cultivation
terrestrial carbon sink
COVER CHANGE
ATMOSPHERIC CO2
SOIL CARBON
TROPICAL REGIONS
SECONDARY LANDS
USE TRANSITIONS
SYSTEM MODEL
3 CENTURIES
EMISSIONS
CLIMATE
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
23188