Report 40: Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England
File(s)2020-12-10-COVID19-Report-40.pdf (4.25 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Report
Abstract
Summary
Countries have deployed a wide range of policies to prioritize patients to hospital care to address unprecedent surges in demand during the course of the pandemic. Those policies included postponing planned hospital care for non-emergency cases and rationing critical care.
We develop a model to optimally schedule elective hospitalizations and allocate hospital general and critical care beds to planned and emergency patients in England during the pandemic. We apply the model to NHS England data and show that optimized scheduling leads to lower years of life lost and costs than policies that reflect those implemented in England during the pandemic. Overall across all disease areas the model enables an extra 50,750 - 5,891,608 years of life gained when compared to standard policies, depending on the scenarios. Especially large gains in years of life are seen for neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, and injuries & poisoning.
Countries have deployed a wide range of policies to prioritize patients to hospital care to address unprecedent surges in demand during the course of the pandemic. Those policies included postponing planned hospital care for non-emergency cases and rationing critical care.
We develop a model to optimally schedule elective hospitalizations and allocate hospital general and critical care beds to planned and emergency patients in England during the pandemic. We apply the model to NHS England data and show that optimized scheduling leads to lower years of life lost and costs than policies that reflect those implemented in England during the pandemic. Overall across all disease areas the model enables an extra 50,750 - 5,891,608 years of life gained when compared to standard policies, depending on the scenarios. Especially large gains in years of life are seen for neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, and injuries & poisoning.
Date Issued
2020-12-10
Citation
2020, pp.1-54
Start Page
1
End Page
54
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives
4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Sponsor
Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-10-COVID19-Report-40.pdf
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
COVID-19
COVID19
Coronavirus
Publication Status
Published