Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption.
File(s)
Author(s)
Lee, Ronald
Mason, Andrew
members of the NTA Network
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
Date Issued
2014-10-10
Date Acceptance
2014-08-26
Citation
Science, 2014, 346 (6206), pp.229-234
ISSN
1095-9203
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science - AAAS
Start Page
229
End Page
234
Journal / Book Title
Science
Volume
346
Issue
6206
Copyright Statement
© 2014 The Authors. Published under license by American Association for the Advancement of Science. This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science, Vol. 346, no. 6206, 2014, DOI: 10.1126/science.1250542
Description
23.01.15 KB. OK to add accepted version in Spiral.
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25301626
PII: 346/6206/229
Subjects
Age Factors
Aging
Birth Rate
Economics
Female
Fertility
Humans
Income
Income Tax
Population Growth
Socioeconomic Factors
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2014-10-10