A flexible system design approach for multi-facility capacity expansion problems with risk aversion
File(s)Zhao2022-IISE_Open.pdf (1.21 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Zhao, Sixiang
Haskell, William B
Cardin, Michel-Alexandre
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper studies a model for risk aversion when designing a flexible capacity expansion plan for a multi-facility system. In this setting, the decision maker can dynamically expand the capacity of each facility given observations of uncertain demand. We model this situation as a multi-stage stochastic programming problem, and we express risk aversion through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and a mean-CVaR objective. We optimize the multi-stage problem over a tractable family of if–then decision rules using a decomposition algorithm. This algorithm decomposes the stochastic program over scenarios and updates the solutions via the subgradients of the function of cumulative future costs. To illustrate the practical effectiveness of this method, we present a numerical study of a decentralized waste-to-energy system in Singapore. The simulation results show that the risk-averse model can improve the tail risk of investment losses by adjusting the weight factors of the mean-CVaR objective. The simulations also demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can converge to high-performance policies within a reasonable time, and that it is also more scalable than existing flexible design approaches.
Date Issued
2023-02-01
Date Acceptance
2021-12-02
Citation
IISE Transactions, 2023, 55 (2), pp.187-200
ISSN
2472-5854
Publisher
Taylor and Francis
Start Page
187
End Page
200
Journal / Book Title
IISE Transactions
Volume
55
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2021 “IISE”. Published by Taylor & Francis.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Engineering, Industrial
Operations Research & Management Science
Engineering
Capacity expansion problem
system design
real options
risk aversion
multi-stage stochastic programming
decision rules
FLEXIBILITY
DEMAND
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-12-28