Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Climate change policies do not always include analysis of air quality and physical activity co-benefits. We compared business as usual (BAU) UK policy with Net Zero scenarios from the UK Climate Change Committee for road transport and building sectors. We quantified and monetised the health benefits of the Balanced Net Zero (BNZP) and Widespread Innovation (WI) Pathways.
Air pollution concentrations were predicted using Chemical Transport Models and population-weighted. Shifts from car to walking and cycling for transport were converted to METhrs/week. Literature concentration–response functions were combined with baseline rates from routine statistics/other sources. Mortality and multi-morbidity impacts were calculated using lifetable analysis, and an incidence/prevalence model from 2019 to 2154 (a lifetime after 2050). Monetary values were applied to the results.
The BNZP policy compared with BAU gave 4.9 (95 % confidence interval 1.0–9.0) million life-years gained (LYG) (UK population, to 2154), including 1.1 (0.7–1.6) million LYG from active travel improvements. Avoided COPD and childhood asthma cases were 201,000 (150,000 – 250,000) and 192,000 (64,600–311,000). The monetised air quality morbidity benefits (£52.1 (36.4 – 67.8) billion) substantially added to the air quality mortality benefits (£77.9 (42.9 to 90.8) billion). Total yearly monetised benefits for BNZP vs BAU summed to 2154 (air pollution/active travel) were £153 (122 to 184) billion (core); 278 (228 to 334) billion (+outcomes with weaker evidence).
Adding the effects of air pollution reductions on disease incidence, with effects of air pollution and physical activity on mortality, increases the monetised benefits that may justify Net Zero policies in cost-benefit analysis.
Air pollution concentrations were predicted using Chemical Transport Models and population-weighted. Shifts from car to walking and cycling for transport were converted to METhrs/week. Literature concentration–response functions were combined with baseline rates from routine statistics/other sources. Mortality and multi-morbidity impacts were calculated using lifetable analysis, and an incidence/prevalence model from 2019 to 2154 (a lifetime after 2050). Monetary values were applied to the results.
The BNZP policy compared with BAU gave 4.9 (95 % confidence interval 1.0–9.0) million life-years gained (LYG) (UK population, to 2154), including 1.1 (0.7–1.6) million LYG from active travel improvements. Avoided COPD and childhood asthma cases were 201,000 (150,000 – 250,000) and 192,000 (64,600–311,000). The monetised air quality morbidity benefits (£52.1 (36.4 – 67.8) billion) substantially added to the air quality mortality benefits (£77.9 (42.9 to 90.8) billion). Total yearly monetised benefits for BNZP vs BAU summed to 2154 (air pollution/active travel) were £153 (122 to 184) billion (core); 278 (228 to 334) billion (+outcomes with weaker evidence).
Adding the effects of air pollution reductions on disease incidence, with effects of air pollution and physical activity on mortality, increases the monetised benefits that may justify Net Zero policies in cost-benefit analysis.
Date Issued
2025-02-01
Date Acceptance
2025-01-13
Citation
Environment International, 2025, 196
ISSN
0160-4120
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Environment International
Volume
196
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Sponsor
National Institute for Health Research
Identifier
10.1016/j.envint.2025.109283
Grant Number
NIHR129406
Subjects
Environmental Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
109283
Date Publish Online
2025-01-16