Future changes in δ
13
C of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean
13
C of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean
Author(s)
Graven, Heather
Lamb, Elleanor
Blake, Daisy
Khatiwala, Samar
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion are reducing the ratio 13C/12C, δ13C, in atmospheric urn:x-wiley:23284277:media:eft2900:eft2900-math-0001 and in the carbon in the ocean and terrestrial biosphere that exchanges with the atmosphere on timescales of decades to centuries. Future changes to fossil fuel emissions vary across different scenarios and may cause decreases of more than 6‰ in atmospheric δ13urn:x-wiley:23284277:media:eft2900:eft2900-math-0002 between 1850 and 2100. The effects of these potential changes on the three-dimensional distribution of δ13C in the ocean has not yet been investigated. Here, we use an ocean biogeochemical-circulation model forced with a range of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios to simulate δ13C in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon from 1850 to 2100. In the future, vertical δ13C gradients characteristic of the biological pump are reduced or reversed, relative to the preindustrial period, with the reversal occurring in higher emission scenarios. For the highest emission scenario, SSP5-8.5, surface δ13C in the centre of Pacific subtropical gyres falls from 2.2‰ in 1850 to -3.5‰ by 2100. In lower emission scenarios, δ13C in the surface ocean decreases but then rebounds. The relationship between anthropogenic carbon (Cant) and δ13C in the ocean shows a larger scatter in all scenarios, suggesting that errors in δ13C-based estimates of Cant may increase in the future. These simulations were run with fixed physical forcing and ocean circulation, providing a baseline of predicted δ13C. Further work is needed to investigate the impact of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks on ocean δ13C changes.
Date Issued
2021-12
Date Acceptance
2021-09-26
Citation
Earth's Future, 2021, 9 (12), pp.1-12
ISSN
2328-4277
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Start Page
1
End Page
12
Journal / Book Title
Earth's Future
Volume
9
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Sponsor
The Leverhulme Trust
Identifier
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EF002173
Grant Number
80681
Subjects
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
0502 Environmental Science and Management
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-10-01