When is enough, enough? When are more observational epidemiologic studies needed to resolve a research question: Illustrations using biomarker-cancer associations
File(s)Marrone_CEBP Revision unmarker_2018 10 23.docx (226.83 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Research reproducibility is vital for translation of epidemiologic findings. However, repeated studies of the same question may be undertaken without enhancing existing knowledge. To identify settings in which additional research is or is not warranted, we adapted research synthesis metrics to determine number of additional observational studies needed to change the inference from an existing meta-analysis. METHODS: The fail-safe number (FSN) estimates number of additional studies of average weight and null effect needed to drive a statistically significant meta-analysis to null (P≥0.05). We used conditional power to determine number of additional studies of average weight and equivalent heterogeneity to achieve 80% power in an updated meta-analysis to detect the observed summary estimate as statistically significant. We applied these metrics to a curated set of 98 meta-analyses on biomarkers and cancer risk. RESULTS: Both metrics were influenced by number of studies, heterogeneity, and summary estimate size in the existing meta-analysis. For the meta-analysis on H. pylori and gastric cancer with 15 studies (OR=2.29; 95% CI 1.71-3.05), FSN was 805 studies, supporting futility of further study. For the meta-analysis on dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate and prostate cancer with 7 studies (OR=1.29; 95% CI 0.99-1.69), 5 more studies would be needed for 80% power, suggesting further study could change inferences. CONCLUSIONS: Along with traditional assessments, these metrics could be used by stakeholders to decide whether additional studies addressing the same question are needed. IMPACT: Systematic application of these metrics could lead to more judicious use of resources and acceleration from discovery to population-health impact.
Date Issued
2019-02-01
Date Acceptance
2018-10-26
Citation
Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention, 2019, 28 (2), pp.239-247
ISSN
1055-9965
Publisher
American Association for Cancer Research
Start Page
239
End Page
247
Journal / Book Title
Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention
Volume
28
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2018, American Association for Cancer Research.
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30377205
PII: 1055-9965.EPI-18-0660
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Oncology
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
HELICOBACTER-PYLORI INFECTION
ENDOGENOUS SEX-HORMONES
FILE-DRAWER PROBLEM
C-REACTIVE PROTEIN
BREAST-CANCER
PROSTATE-CANCER
COLORECTAL-CANCER
LUNG-CANCER
INCREASING VALUE
GASTRIC-CANCER
Epidemiology
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2018-10-30