Analysis of non-stationary modulated time series with applications to oceanographic surface flow measurements
File(s)1605.09107v2.pdf (2.09 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Guillaumin, Arthur P
Sykulski, Adam M
Olhede, Sofia C
Early, Jeffrey J
Lilly, Jonathan M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We propose a new class of univariate non-stationary time series models, using the framework of modulated time series, which is appropriate for the analysis of rapidly evolving time series as well as time series observations with missing data. We extend our techniques to a class of bivariate time series that are isotropic. Exact inference is often not computationally viable for time series analysis, and so we propose an estimation method based on the Whittle likelihood, a commonly adopted pseudo-likelihood. Our inference procedure is shown to be consistent under standard assumptions, as well as having considerably lower computational cost than exact likelihood in general. We show the utility of this framework for the analysis of drifting instruments, an analysis that is key to characterizing global ocean circulation and therefore also for decadal to century-scale climate understanding.
Date Issued
2017-09-01
Date Acceptance
2017-03-22
Citation
Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2017, 38 (5), pp.668-710
ISSN
0143-9782
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
668
End Page
710
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Time Series Analysis
Volume
38
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article, which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jtsa.12244. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000409322700003&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
Modulation
non-stationary
periodogram
Whittle likelihood
missing data
surface drifters
SPECTRAL DENSITY-ESTIMATION
MODELS
PARAMETERS
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2017-07-26