The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis
File(s)Li-Otto2022_Article_TheRoleOfHuman-inducedClimateC.pdf (1.62 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Li, Sihan
Otto, Friederike EL
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Around October 12, 2019, torrential rainfall from Typhoon Hagibis caused large-scale flooding in a large area around the metropole region of Tokyo leading to large-scale destruction including losses of lives, livelihoods, and economic losses of well over $10 bn US dollars. In this paper we use a multi-method probabilistic event attribution framework to assess the role of human-induced climate change in the heavy rainfall event responsible for a large proportion of the damages. Combining different observational datasets and various climate model simulations, we find an increase in the likelihood of such an event to occur of 15–150%. We use this assessment and the calculated fraction of attributable risk (FAR) to further estimate the economic costs attributable to anthropogenic climate change based on the insured economic losses. Our conservative estimate is that ~$4bn of the damages due to the extreme heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Hagibis are due to human-induced climate change.
Date Issued
2022-05-01
Date Acceptance
2022-03-22
Citation
Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change, 2022, 172 (1-2), pp.1-19
ISSN
0165-0009
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
1
End Page
19
Journal / Book Title
Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change
Volume
172
Issue
1-2
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2022, corrected publication 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000797537300001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Extreme weather attribution
Heavy rainfall
Typhoon Hagibis
Multi-method
Attributable economic costs
EC-EARTH
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 7
Date Publish Online
2022-05-18