Engineering Options Analysis (EOA): Applications
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Author(s)
de Neufville, R
Smet, K
Cardin, M
Ranjbar-Bourani, M
Type
Chapter
Abstract
This chapter illustrates the use and value of Engineering Options Analysis (EOA) using two case studies. Each describes the analysis in detail. Each entails the need for plans to monitor projects so that managers know when to exercise options and adapt projects to the future as it develops. The Liquid Natural Gas case (Case Study 1) concerns the development of a liquid natural gas plant in Australia. It:Provides a generic prototype for the analysis of projected innovative developments.Demonstrates the kind of insights that EOA can provide.Highlights the potential advantage of flexibility in size, time, and location of facilities. In particular, it develops the important insight that modular designs may be more profitable than monolithic designs because they enable managers to reduce the significant risk of overdesigned plants, and they increase opportunities by taking advantage of the time and location of increases in demand.The IJmuiden case (Case Study 2) concerns water management and flood control facilities in the Netherlands. It:Demonstrates the application of EOA to cope with uncertainty in natural processes, in contrast to the more traditional context of market uncertainties.Uses diverse scenarios to identify conditions for which a strategy is valid across significant ranges of future conditions, and contrary situations in which a choice depends on belief about the level of risks.Documents how EOA shows which forms of flexibility in design justify their cost (in this case, flexibility in pumping facilities adds significant value, but flexibility in the flood defense height of the structure does not).Shows how the calculation of distributions of possible outcomes provides decisionmakers with useful information concerning worst-case outcomes, unavailable from average outcomes alone.
Editor(s)
Marchau, VAWJ
Walker, WE
Bloemen, PJTM
Popper, SW
Date Issued
2019
Citation
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice, 2019, pp.223-252
ISBN
978-3-030-05252-2
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Start Page
223
End Page
252
Journal / Book Title
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2019. This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate
credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and
indicate if changes were made.
The images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the chapter’s Creative
Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not
included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by
statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder.
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate
credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and
indicate if changes were made.
The images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the chapter’s Creative
Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not
included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by
statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder.
Identifier
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2_11
Subjects
Business & Economics
Place of Publication
Cham
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
11
Date Publish Online
2019-04-05