Combining distribution‐based neural networks to predict weather forecast probabilities
OA Location
Author(s)
Clare, Mariana CA
Jamil, Omar
Morcrette, Cyril J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each point in space and time rather than a single output value, thus producing a probabilistic weather forecast. This enables the calculation of both uncertainty and skill metrics for the neural network predictions, and overcomes the common difficulty of inferring uncertainty from these predictions. This approach is data-driven and the neural network is trained on the WeatherBench dataset (processed ERA5 data) to forecast geopotential and temperature 3 and 5 days ahead. Data exploration leads to the identification of the most important input variables. In order to increase computational efficiency, several neural networks are trained on small subsets of these variables. The outputs are then combined through a stacked neural network, the first time such a technique has been applied to weather data. Our approach is found to be more accurate than some coarse numerical weather prediction models and as accurate as more complex alternative neural networks, with the added benefit of providing key probabilistic information necessary for making informed weather forecasts.
Date Issued
2021-10
Date Acceptance
2021-10-01
Citation
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, 147 (741), pp.4337-4357
ISSN
0035-9009
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
4337
End Page
4357
Journal / Book Title
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Volume
147
Issue
741
Copyright Statement
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided theoriginal work is properly cited.© 2021 The Authors.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Societypublished by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.
License URL
Sponsor
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Identifier
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4180
Grant Number
EP/R512540/1
Subjects
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0405 Oceanography
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-10-23