The air quality, health and economic costs and benefits of a zero carbon UK: a comprehensive synopsis
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background
Net Zero policies rarely consider air quality and physical activity health cobenefits, cost–benefit analysis, exposure indoors and exposure inequalities.
Objectives
To calculate the air quality, health and economic costs and benefits of United Kingdom Net Zero policy, impacts on inequalities and consult the public on the acceptance of Net Zero policy.
Design and methods
We used sophisticated emissions and air quality models, Life Table health impact analysis, United Kingdom Government cost–benefit methods and estimated exposure inequalities. We compared 2030 and 2040 United Kingdom PM10, PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide and ozone predictions using existing air quality policy, or Business as Usual, with Net Zero policy. We predicted Net Zero 2050 pollutant concentrations.
Interventions
Business as Usual scenarios were from United Kingdom Government projections and Net Zero scenarios were from the Climate Change Committee’s sixth Carbon Budget. We used the Balanced Net Zero and Widespread Innovation Pathways for road transport, building heating and active travel.
Main outcome measures
United Kingdom air pollution, including exposure inequalities, mortality, morbidity and economic costs and benefits.
Results
Air quality: Under Business as Usual, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter reduced by 2030 due to new vehicles. The 2040 Balanced Net Zero Pathway and Widespread Innovation scenarios showed further reductions, driven by electric vehicle uptake, reduced vehicle kilometre travelled compared with Business as Usual, and low-carbon building heating. Particulate matter reductions from buildings was two and three times greater than from road transport, for Widespread Innovation and Balanced Net Zero Pathways, respectively. Balanced Net Zero Pathway+ 2050 predictions showed additional air pollution benefits.
Exposure inequalities analysis: In 2019, urban central professionals experienced 14 µg m−3 higher nitrogen dioxide concentrations than rural elderly. At 1.5 µg m−3, PM2.5 concentrations varied less across geodemographic groups. Despite future improvements in nitrogen dioxide, inequalities persisted, but were less pronounced, due in part to Net Zero policies.
Indoor air pollution: Removing gas cooking at home for Net Zero may result in greater nitrogen dioxide reductions than changes in outdoor air pollution.
Health and active travel impacts: Compared with Business as Usual, Balanced Net Zero Pathway gave 4.9 (95% confidence interval 1.0 to 9.0) million life-years gained across the United Kingdom, to 2154, including 1.1 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 1.6) million life-years gained from active travel. Avoided chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and childhood asthma cases were 201,000 (95% confidence interval 150,000 to 250,000) and 192,000 (95% confidence interval 64,600 to 311,000). Monetised morbidity benefits of £52.1B (95% confidence interval 36.4 to 67.8) added significantly to mortality benefits of £77.9B (95% confidence interval 42.9 to 90.8). Total yearly air pollution and active travel benefits were £153B (95% confidence interval 122 to 184), rising to £278B (95% confidence interval 228 to 334), including outcomes with weaker evidence.
Costs/benefits: Building sector Balanced Net Zero Pathway air quality health benefits were £21.3B (95% confidence interval 16.4 to 26.2) by 2050 and were £98.4B (95% confidence interval 75.7 to 121.1) by 2154. Transport benefits were £9.1B (95% confidence interval 7.0 to 11.2) by 2050 and were £36.5B (95% confidence interval 28.1 to 44.9) by 2154. Balanced Net Zero Pathway building sector operating costs alone did not achieve break-even, but with greenhouse gases reductions (lower benefits) break-even was achieved by 2052. Air pollution health benefits reduced the building sector time to break-even by between 3.1 (95% confidence interval 2.5 to 4.7) and 6.3 (95% confidence interval 4.7 to 7.6) years.
Public engagement: Conversations reflected an intergenerational commitment to Net Zero policies, although there was uncertainty about an individual’s impact.
Limitations
Uncertainties in future air quality and meteorological conditions; through lack of evidence, being unable to use multipollutant models and indoor air pollution, missing indoor health and monetised benefits; some health outcomes with weaker health evidence strongly influenced the results. The COVID pandemic prevented us from exploring social acceptance as planned.
Conclusions
This study identified health and economic cobenefits through reductions in greenhouse gases, air pollution, inequalities and increased exercise.
Net Zero policies rarely consider air quality and physical activity health cobenefits, cost–benefit analysis, exposure indoors and exposure inequalities.
Objectives
To calculate the air quality, health and economic costs and benefits of United Kingdom Net Zero policy, impacts on inequalities and consult the public on the acceptance of Net Zero policy.
Design and methods
We used sophisticated emissions and air quality models, Life Table health impact analysis, United Kingdom Government cost–benefit methods and estimated exposure inequalities. We compared 2030 and 2040 United Kingdom PM10, PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide and ozone predictions using existing air quality policy, or Business as Usual, with Net Zero policy. We predicted Net Zero 2050 pollutant concentrations.
Interventions
Business as Usual scenarios were from United Kingdom Government projections and Net Zero scenarios were from the Climate Change Committee’s sixth Carbon Budget. We used the Balanced Net Zero and Widespread Innovation Pathways for road transport, building heating and active travel.
Main outcome measures
United Kingdom air pollution, including exposure inequalities, mortality, morbidity and economic costs and benefits.
Results
Air quality: Under Business as Usual, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter reduced by 2030 due to new vehicles. The 2040 Balanced Net Zero Pathway and Widespread Innovation scenarios showed further reductions, driven by electric vehicle uptake, reduced vehicle kilometre travelled compared with Business as Usual, and low-carbon building heating. Particulate matter reductions from buildings was two and three times greater than from road transport, for Widespread Innovation and Balanced Net Zero Pathways, respectively. Balanced Net Zero Pathway+ 2050 predictions showed additional air pollution benefits.
Exposure inequalities analysis: In 2019, urban central professionals experienced 14 µg m−3 higher nitrogen dioxide concentrations than rural elderly. At 1.5 µg m−3, PM2.5 concentrations varied less across geodemographic groups. Despite future improvements in nitrogen dioxide, inequalities persisted, but were less pronounced, due in part to Net Zero policies.
Indoor air pollution: Removing gas cooking at home for Net Zero may result in greater nitrogen dioxide reductions than changes in outdoor air pollution.
Health and active travel impacts: Compared with Business as Usual, Balanced Net Zero Pathway gave 4.9 (95% confidence interval 1.0 to 9.0) million life-years gained across the United Kingdom, to 2154, including 1.1 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 1.6) million life-years gained from active travel. Avoided chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and childhood asthma cases were 201,000 (95% confidence interval 150,000 to 250,000) and 192,000 (95% confidence interval 64,600 to 311,000). Monetised morbidity benefits of £52.1B (95% confidence interval 36.4 to 67.8) added significantly to mortality benefits of £77.9B (95% confidence interval 42.9 to 90.8). Total yearly air pollution and active travel benefits were £153B (95% confidence interval 122 to 184), rising to £278B (95% confidence interval 228 to 334), including outcomes with weaker evidence.
Costs/benefits: Building sector Balanced Net Zero Pathway air quality health benefits were £21.3B (95% confidence interval 16.4 to 26.2) by 2050 and were £98.4B (95% confidence interval 75.7 to 121.1) by 2154. Transport benefits were £9.1B (95% confidence interval 7.0 to 11.2) by 2050 and were £36.5B (95% confidence interval 28.1 to 44.9) by 2154. Balanced Net Zero Pathway building sector operating costs alone did not achieve break-even, but with greenhouse gases reductions (lower benefits) break-even was achieved by 2052. Air pollution health benefits reduced the building sector time to break-even by between 3.1 (95% confidence interval 2.5 to 4.7) and 6.3 (95% confidence interval 4.7 to 7.6) years.
Public engagement: Conversations reflected an intergenerational commitment to Net Zero policies, although there was uncertainty about an individual’s impact.
Limitations
Uncertainties in future air quality and meteorological conditions; through lack of evidence, being unable to use multipollutant models and indoor air pollution, missing indoor health and monetised benefits; some health outcomes with weaker health evidence strongly influenced the results. The COVID pandemic prevented us from exploring social acceptance as planned.
Conclusions
This study identified health and economic cobenefits through reductions in greenhouse gases, air pollution, inequalities and increased exercise.
Date Issued
2026-05-01
Date Acceptance
2026-04-01
Citation
Public Health Research, 2026, 14 (11), pp.1-21
ISSN
2050-4381
Publisher
NIHR Journals Library
Start Page
1
End Page
21
Journal / Book Title
Public Health Research
Volume
14
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2026 Beevers et al. This work was produced by Beevers et al. under the terms of a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care. This is an Open Access publication distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0 licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. For attribution the title, original author(s), the publication source – NIHR Journals Library, and the DOI of the publication must be cited.
License URL
Identifier
10.3310/GJSB3701
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2026-05-01