Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Objective: This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caió, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caió, can persist as an infection of the elderly.
Design: A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau.
Methods: An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections.
Results: HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly.
Conclusion: HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.
Design: A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau.
Methods: An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections.
Results: HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly.
Conclusion: HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.
Date Issued
2015-11-28
Date Acceptance
2015-08-05
Citation
AIDS, 2015, 29 (18), pp.2479-2486
ISSN
0269-9370
Publisher
Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins
Start Page
2479
End Page
2486
Journal / Book Title
AIDS
Volume
29
Issue
18
Copyright Statement
© 2015 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License, where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0). The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000368490100002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Immunology
Infectious Diseases
Virology
age
epidemiology
extinction
HIV-2
incidence
mathematical model
prevalence
IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS TYPE-2
PLASMA VIRAL LOAD
WEST-AFRICA
ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY
COMPETITIVE-EXCLUSION
DUAL INFECTIONS
TRANSMISSION
MORTALITY
POPULATION
PREVALENCE
Publication Status
Published