"Dice"-sion making under uncertainty: when can a random decision reduce risk?
File(s)5582.pdf (417.93 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Delage, Erick
Kuhn, Daniel
Wiesemann, W
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Stochastic programming and distributionally robust optimization seek
deterministic
deci-
sions that optimize a risk measure, possibly in view of the most adverse distribution in an am-
biguity set. We investigate under which circumstances such deterministic decisions are strictly
outperformed by
random
decisions which depend on a randomization device producing uniformly
distributed samples that are independent of all uncertain factors affecting the decision problem.
We find that in the absence of distributional ambiguity, deterministic decisions are optimal if
both the risk measure and the feasible region are convex, or alternatively if the risk measure
is mixture-quasiconcave. We show that several risk measures, such as mean (semi-)deviation
and mean (semi-)moment measures, fail to be mixture-quasiconcave and can therefore give rise
to problems in which the decision maker benefits from randomization. Under distributional
ambiguity, on the other hand, we show that for any ambiguity averse risk measure satisfying a
mild continuity property we can construct a decision problem in which a randomized decision
strictly outperforms all deterministic decisions.
deterministic
deci-
sions that optimize a risk measure, possibly in view of the most adverse distribution in an am-
biguity set. We investigate under which circumstances such deterministic decisions are strictly
outperformed by
random
decisions which depend on a randomization device producing uniformly
distributed samples that are independent of all uncertain factors affecting the decision problem.
We find that in the absence of distributional ambiguity, deterministic decisions are optimal if
both the risk measure and the feasible region are convex, or alternatively if the risk measure
is mixture-quasiconcave. We show that several risk measures, such as mean (semi-)deviation
and mean (semi-)moment measures, fail to be mixture-quasiconcave and can therefore give rise
to problems in which the decision maker benefits from randomization. Under distributional
ambiguity, on the other hand, we show that for any ambiguity averse risk measure satisfying a
mild continuity property we can construct a decision problem in which a randomized decision
strictly outperforms all deterministic decisions.
Date Issued
2019-07-01
Date Acceptance
2018-04-11
Citation
Management Science, 2019, 65 (7), pp.2947-3448
ISSN
0025-1909
Publisher
Informs
Start Page
2947
End Page
3448
Journal / Book Title
Management Science
Volume
65
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2019, INFORMS.
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Grant Number
EP/M028240/1
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Management
Operations Research & Management Science
Business & Economics
stochastic programming
risk measures
distributionally robust optimization
ambiguity aversion
randomizes decisions
DISTRIBUTIONALLY ROBUST OPTIMIZATION
WORST-CASE VALUE
STOCHASTIC CHOICE
EXPECTED UTILITY
PREFERENCES
RANDOMIZATION
PROBABILITY
CONSISTENCY
COMMITMENT
Operations Research
08 Information and Computing Sciences
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-05-02