The value of performance weights and discussion in aggregated expert judgements
File(s)
Author(s)
Hanea, Anca
Burgman, MA
McBride, Marissa
Wintle, Bonnie
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In risky situations characterized by imminent decisions, scarce resources, and insufficient data, policymakers rely on experts to estimate model parameters and their associated uncertainties. Different elicitation and aggregation methods can vary substantially in their efficacy and robustness. While it is generally agreed that biases in expert judgments can be mitigated using structured elicitations involving groups rather than individuals, there is still some disagreement about how to best elicit and aggregate judgments. This mostly concerns the merits of using performance‐based weighting schemes to combine judgments of different individuals (rather than assigning equal weights to individual experts), and the way that interaction between experts should be handled. This article aims to contribute to, and complement, the ongoing discussion on these topics.
Date Issued
2018-09-01
Date Acceptance
2018-02-08
Citation
Risk Analysis, 38 (9), pp.1781-1794
ISSN
0272-4332
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
1781
End Page
1794
Journal / Book Title
Risk Analysis
Volume
38
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Society for Risk Analysis. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article, which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.12992
Subjects
Science & Technology
Social Sciences
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Mathematics
Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
Aggregation
confidence
elicitation protocol
performance-based weighting schemes
structured expert judgment
RISK ANALYSIS
CLASSICAL-MODEL
GOOD THINGS
DELPHI
ACCURACY
VALIDATION
FORECASTS
CONSENSUS
POLITICS
WORLD
MD Multidisciplinary
Strategic, Defence & Security Studies
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-04-17